Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.